In the weekly chart of HOT (see Chart 1, below), a strategic reaction takes place in Jan-Feb ‘06. The thrust down below the 48 handle in the first week of Feb ‘06, is a price too low, followed by a price rejection the following week.
Our primary method for analysing price rejections is to use what we call vector analysis—developed for the express purpose of separating meaningless (random) price movement from meaningful (non-random) price movement.
STOPPING ACTION
After a price too low (or too high) has been offset by price rejection, a period of congestion or a minor trading range occurs for approximately 2-6 weeks. Remember we’re focusing on major reversals, not minor tops and bottoms.
During this period, the order flow bias, which has been dominating the price action in the form of buying or selling pressure, begins to ebb and price stops making new highs or lows, hence stopping action or congestion takes place. Weeks tend to pass without price making new lows or new highs—in short, the character of the price action changes.
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